TRAINING COURSE: Play-Based Exploration: Mapping, Volumetric & Risk Analysis

Defining Plays, Vertically and Laterally

• Critical data needs
• Generating a play-specific well database
• Overlaying element maps to generate play maps
• EXERCISE and Debrief: Training dataset familiarization, defining overall play outline

Dividing Plays into Subplays

• Play segments versus common risk segments – reasons for subplays
• Gross depositional environment, tectonic setting
• Concept of common risk segment maps, and segment families
• Impact of uncertainty/confidence upon maps
• “Geologic” vs. “strategic” play delineation with map examples
• EXERCISE and Debrief: Initial play segmentation, assign ‘traffic light’ probability

Treatment of chance – plays vs. prospects

• Review of Pg factors
• Commonalities – prospect to play assessment of chance
• Apportioning chance factors to shared/local elements, demonstrated with map examples
• Reality checks
• Impact of apportioning chance into shared/local chance upon chance of venture success
• EXERCISE and Debrief: Assigning Play Chance Factors to segmented play map

Data Issues

• Creating a Key Well Test Dataset
• Key Well Annotation
• EXERCISE and Debrief: Assigning Prospect-specific Chance Factors to segments

Field size data – pitfalls for predicting the future

• Significance of using appropriate future field size – impact upon the math
• Truncation of field size data due to under-sampling, dangers of small sample size
• Impact of (and accommodating) discovery process to predict the future
• Plotting techniques
• Using appropriate analogs – and what to do in rank wildcat plays
• EXERCISE and Debrief: Analyze field size dataset from play area, early exploration period    and predict future field size characteristics

Calculating Undiscovered (Yet to Find) Volumes

• Different methods
• Appropriate method to use based upon state of knowledge
• Prospect/lead density
• Pitfalls and reality checks
• EXERCISE and Debrief: Calculate undrilled leads, appropriate future field size distribution, and undiscovered potential for each identified segment, compare predictions to results. Award prizes for best group performance

Risk analysis for plays vs. prospects – Strategic Play Analysis

• Expected value concept, significance, and contrasted (prospect to play)
• Inputs for play risk analysis, contrasted to prospect risk analysis
• Detailed review of each of the input parameters used in strategic play analysis, including pitfalls and reality checks
• The math – plugging the inputs into the calculation of key play metrics of profitability and efficiency

Play Based Exploration for unconventional plays

• Characteristics of unconventional resource plays
• Similarities and differences in chance from conventional plays
• Field size distributions versus EUR/well distributions
• Key inputs and maps, differences in map process
• Play fairway definition: differences from conventional plays

Play ranking techniques – choosing the best plays for your company

• Review of potential ranking criteria – geologic, strategic, geopolitical
• Review of calculated outputs from strategic play assessment methodology
• Building and interpreting ‘business ranking models’